2050 · v4 real data

Where BTC can go next, and what fires on the way.

Recorded today from Binance, Kraken, Hyperliquid and Deribit. The worm is what really traded. After NOW, the wire cage shows how far BTC has moved in 3 hours before, measured over every recorded day. Nothing after NOW is measured, and there is no route until one passes a test.

What is real and what is estimated

LayerSourceStatus

The grey stretch in the worm is this morning's disk-full outage, drawn at real length. Nothing is drawn where nothing was recorded.

Complete data we can pull, to build and test a route

  • Binance archive: every trade, open interest with the buy and sell volume split every 5 min, and the resting orders, per day. Checked: yesterday's files are there (trades 22.8 MB, metrics 11.6 KB, resting orders 564 KB).
  • Bybit archive: every trade per day (98 MB for yesterday).
  • OKX archive: every trade per day (17 MB for yesterday).
  • Not free: Deribit option history per strike, and complete liquidations across exchanges. Needed for dealer walls and fuel in the past.

What they are for: months of history to test a route rule. If a rule's route is not better than this plain 3h range, the route stays off the screen.

reading the trades…